Pete Alonso 2025 Home Run Projection

How many times will Pete go yard in 2025? This is one of the most important questions coming into the 2025 season as it will play a role in the Mets going deep into the playoffs and perhaps whether Pete and Scott Boras will be negotiating another new contract at the end of the year. We should all be rooting for a number that exceeds our expectations.

Our Projection: 41

How did we get there?


Historical Pete:
From the data below we see Pete having a down year in production with his normal production, over the last 4 seasons being slightly over 0.25 per game. If we assume Pete suits up for 160 games that will bring him to 40.

SeasonGames PlayedHome RunsHR/Game
202115237.24
202216040.25
202315446.30
202416234.21

(click here for more of Pete’s stats)

Various Vegas Lines Include:
FanDuel : 35.5
Vegas is predicting an up year for Pete, like many of us we think last year was a fluke.

Soto/Vientos/Lindor – Oh My!
Pitchers will be forced to pitch less junk to Pete as this years lineup is more stacked than last. Pete will see better pitches, take less walks and hit more HR’s

In closing there were many reasons why Pete had an off year, we’ll get into that in a later article, and had poor production. We see this not happening again in 2025 which will lead the Mets to the post season, and an eventual opt-out. Let’s hope we get both and Pete gets a new agent.


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