A combination of offseason moves, injuries, and emerging talent has shaped the New York Mets’ projected starting rotation for the 2025 season. Initially, the rotation was expected to include Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Paul Blackburn. However, injuries to Manaea and Montas have forced the Mets to revise their plans. While the rotation lacks a traditional ace following the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in previous seasons, the team is banking on a mix of reliability and potential to remain competitive in the NL East.

Kodai Senga was set to lead the rotation after a stellar 2023 campaign, where he emerged as the Mets’ most dependable starter. Known for his devastating “ghost fork” pitch, Senga recorded an impressive ERA and ranked among the league leaders in strikeouts. His ability to generate swings and misses gives the Mets a legitimate frontline starter, although durability is a concern, as he missed most of the 2024 season. With heightened expectations in his third MLB season, the team will rely on Senga to maintain his dominance while logging more innings to stabilize the rotation.

A key storyline for the Mets is Clay Holmes‘ transition from an elite reliever to a starting pitcher. Holmes, who signed a three-year, $38 million contract with the Mets in December 2024, is attempting to return to a starting role he previously held early in his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The former Yankees closer has been working to expand his pitch repertoire, incorporating a four-seam fastball and changeup to complement his signature sinker and slider. Early reports from spring training have been encouraging, as Holmes has delivered strong performances in multiple-inning outings. His ability to adjust to the demands of a starting workload will be crucial to the Mets’ success.

David Peterson is a pitcher the Mets are counting on to make significant progress this season. After a career marked by both brilliance and inconsistency, Peterson aims to secure his role as a full-time starter based on his performance in 2024. The left-hander has demonstrated the ability to generate strikeouts with his effective fastball-slider combination. However, issues with control and durability have hindered his development. If he can maintain his command and stay healthy, Peterson has the potential to become a reliable mid-rotation pitcher for the Mets.

The return of Paul Blackburn adds further interest to the pitching rotation. Acquired from the Oakland Athletics, Blackburn’s 2024 season was cut short due to a cerebrospinal fluid leak, a rare injury that kept him sidelined for several months. His return to the mound during spring training has been a welcome sight, with promising early performances. Blackburn is known for inducing weak contact with a mix of off-speed pitches, making him a valuable innings-eater at the back end of the rotation. If he can stay healthy, he will provide much-needed stability for a rotation dealing with multiple injury concerns.

With Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas currently sidelined due to injuries, the Mets needed to bolster their depth, leading to the signing of José Ureña on a minor-league deal. Ureña is a veteran right-hander with experience as both a starter and reliever, and he has a history of durability as an innings-eater. Although he has struggled with consistency throughout his career, his solid sinker induces ground balls, which could prove advantageous in specific matchups. While he is not guaranteed to remain in the rotation all season, Ureña serves as a valuable insurance policy and a crucial stopgap option while the Mets await the returns of their injured starters.

Beyond the expected starters, the Mets have a couple of intriguing young pitchers in Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell, who could see opportunities in 2025.

Brandon Sproat, a hard-throwing right-hander from the University of Florida, was drafted by the Mets in the second round of the 2023 MLB Draft and has quickly advanced through their farm system. He features an electric fastball that can reach triple digits, along with a sharp slider and a developing changeup. If he continues to refine his control in the minors, Sproat could be a candidate for a midseason call-up, either as a rotation reinforcement or as a high-impact bullpen arm.

Blade Tidwell, another promising pitching prospect, presents a different but equally exciting profile on the Mets’ depth chart. A second-round pick in 2022, Tidwell has impressed with his polished mechanics and his ability to generate swing-and-miss pitches this spring. He relies on a strong fastball-slider combination and is currently working on improving his command and third-pitch development. Given the Mets’ rotation concerns regarding durability, Tidwell could become a viable option if injuries persist, especially later in the season when the team may need fresh arms to navigate the grind of a long campaign.

Additionally, Jose Quintana, who was a solid starter for the Mets last year, is still available on the open market. The question is how sharp he would be if the Mets were to make him an offer; he might be rusty and would require some time to prepare for the regular season. Quintana has been an effective innings-eater, relying on pinpoint command, a deceptive fastball, and a strong curveball to generate weak contact. In his best years, he was known for his durability, regularly surpassing 180 innings per season. While his strikeout numbers have never been elite, he has consistently limited walks and induced ground balls.

In summary, the Mets’ rotation will heavily depend on Kodai Senga as its anchor. The transition of Clay Holmes into a starting role will be closely monitored. While Peterson and Blackburn show promise, they also raise durability concerns, and Ureña will serve as an emergency depth option. Additionally, top pitching prospects Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell provide further depth and could become valuable contributors if injuries or performance issues arise. The overall health of Montas and Manaea will ultimately determine the long-term outlook for the rotation. For now, the Mets are moving forward with a blend of experience and potential, aiming to compete in a tough division.

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